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Carver Division 2016

Advanced Insights

Qualification Match Predictions (?)

Remember, match predictions are JUST FOR FUN! Please do not be discouraged by our predictions -- they are almost certainly wrong.

Win/Loss prediction accuracy: 79%

Win/Loss prediction accuracy (>75% confidence): 90%

Match score prediction average error: 14.3

Match Red Alliance Scores:
Actual
(Predicted)
Breach / Capture:
Actual
(Predicted Probability)
Actual Score vs. Predicted Distribution Win/Loss
Prediction
Probability
Win/Loss
Prediction
Correct
Qualifications
263 5460 5326 89
(109)
B
95% / 18%
69%
5830 360 1529 82
(93)
B
61% / 28%
1902 3490 230 124
(104)
B
74% / 24%
60%
5816 2481 1481 111
(113)
B
95% / 36%
5920 1665 1648 85
(90)
B
95% / 34%
83%
5518 3562 5870 62
(74)
--
84% / 5%
141 57 1086 70
(100)
B
95% / 18%
67%
4253 3452 5472 112
(88)
B / C
82% / 5%
5333 120 5891 85
(87)
--
61% / 9%
76%
4405 3049 1262 77
(71)
B
79% / 5%
1729 2370 4301 17
(87)
--
87% / 27%
82%
4451 5822 1836 94
(110)
B / C
78% / 31%
190 834 20 100
(109)
B
95% / 74%
72%
78 1114 295 113
(122)
B
95% / 49%
4607 2846 5924 71
(93)
B
95% / 5%
60%
384 4536 573 85
(99)
C
90% / 30%
3735 85 2634 91
(94)
B
87% / 5%
95%
5980 27 330 124
(153)
B / C
95% / 78%
1775 1723 1746 105
(107)
B
95% / 67%
65%
3478 6086 228 103
(97)
B
95% / 17%
3357 503 842 130
(123)
B / C
90% / 60%
79%
359 910 2767 115
(146)
B
95% / 56%
1058 3600 2212 115
(100)
B
94% / 8%
72%
2648 3536 3419 130
(115)
B / C
95% / 26%
1305 834 2481 132
(133)
B / C
95% / 81%
65%
133 5048 1729 131
(122)
B
61% / 49%
4253 5920 360 104
(104)
B
95% / 31%
92%
5924 3490 4301 71
(66)
B
46% / 5%
3562 3049 4451 80
(75)
B
81% / 5%
67%
2846 295 5472 98
(84)
B
95% / 5%
5822 5980 1529 88
(95)
B / C
95% / 38%
79%
573 1114 5891 105
(113)
B
71% / 47%
3478 190 5870 75
(84)
B
87% / 5%
95%
230 228 503 149
(127)
B / C
95% / 69%
141 2212 359 121
(110)
B / C
95% / 16%
78%
4607 2634 5460 125
(85)
B
81% / 5%
120 5816 1723 116
(85)
B
73% / 5%
85%
2648 1648 910 131
(108)
B / C
95% / 36%
5518 5333 1086 87
(81)
B
88% / 5%
95%
1746 842 27 162
(139)
B / C
95% / 80%
1305 3357 2370 133
(109)
B / C
63% / 57%
66%
3452 85 1902 114
(119)
B
93% / 46%
1262 1836 330 146
(126)
B / C
95% / 69%
81%
1058 1665 20 113
(107)
B
95% / 19%
384 6086 57 100
(85)
B
93% / 38%
50%
4405 263 78 96
(85)
B
90% / 5%
5048 1481 5830 80
(81)
B
88% / 5%
79%
3600 3536 4536 114
(101)
B / C
81% / 23%
5326 2767 133 160
(128)
B / C
90% / 23%
87%
3735 3419 1775 132
(97)
B / C
95% / 20%
5472 1648 5980 86
(92)
B
95% / 42%
87%
360 834 842 141
(118)
B / C
94% / 53%
2212 5518 2846 101
(93)
B
95% / 5%
86%
4253 1114 910 99
(121)
B
93% / 25%
4301 3049 2481 97
(74)
B
47% / 5%
95%
1529 85 1086 128
(108)
B / C
95% / 60%
295 6086 359 126
(120)
B / C
95% / 67%
83%
2648 5924 1729 89
(101)
B
66% / 35%
3562 5816 27 101
(100)
B
89% / 10%
71%
5830 384 1058 100
(86)
B
84% / 5%
1262 573 78 109
(111)
B / C
95% / 50%
61%
2370 3419 3490 105
(104)
B
72% / 28%
1481 5870 330 108
(105)
B
95% / 24%
89%
5460 5891 133 122
(142)
B
74% / 68%
3478 4405 5822 91
(74)
B
79% / 5%
57%
1902 2634 1665 70
(79)
--
94% / 5%
2767 20 57 123
(108)
B / C
94% / 38%
64%
5326 3536 1723 84
(96)
B
82% / 12%
1775 1836 190 100
(115)
B
95% / 56%
77%
1305 4607 5333 74
(91)
B
87% / 11%
5920 4536 3452 81
(111)
B
95% / 59%
64%
4451 120 228 146
(120)
B / C
95% / 49%
263 3600 5048 102
(99)
B
95% / 5%
77%
503 3735 1746 85
(116)
B
95% / 39%
141 230 3419 137
(138)
B / C
95% / 71%
73%
3357 5518 360 155
(120)
B / C
92% / 40%
5830 4301 842 114
(68)
B
41% / 5%
95%
2846 2648 133 122
(140)
B
95% / 47%
1665 1114 5460 164
(122)
B / C
95% / 30%
95%
2370 3049 1723 90
(68)
B
67% / 6%
910 4607 78 132
(94)
B
85% / 6%
57%
5980 1481 3478 110
(89)
B / C
95% / 6%
1775 1729 57 91
(87)
B
71% / 32%
88%
1902 27 1262 116
(114)
B
93% / 30%
4253 5924 3600 109
(92)
B
93% / 9%
54%
5326 1305 5891 112
(89)
B / C
87% / 25%
5048 3490 5870 91
(84)
B
94% / 5%
86%
2634 1836 3357 115
(112)
B
89% / 36%
5333 1648 228 93
(89)
B
95% / 16%
66%
141 1529 295 99
(97)
B
92% / 43%
573 5920 5472 94
(89)
B
94% / 25%
95%
85 359 263 111
(123)
B
95% / 44%
3562 120 190 60
(99)
--
77% / 24%
69%
5816 330 2212 103
(114)
B
95% / 7%
834 1086 503 135
(102)
B / C
95% / 33%
67%
6086 5822 4536 82
(92)
B
95% / 57%
230 2767 3452 150
(150)
B / C
95% / 82%
86%
1746 20 384 106
(114)
B
95% / 91%
3536 1058 3735 104
(108)
B
89% / 5%
74%
4451 2481 4405 113
(125)
B / C
85% / 41%
5891 2846 3357 123
(103)
B / C
92% / 30%
50%
3478 57 360 151
(102)
B / C
95% / 29%
4607 5326 295 94
(84)
B
86% / 9%
70%
4301 1665 263 89
(63)
B
64% / 5%
1729 3562 842 91
(90)
B
53% / 13%
78%
1481 85 5924 134
(110)
B / C
95% / 58%
910 3419 330 150
(144)
B / C
94% / 76%
92%
2370 5048 6086 94
(103)
B / C
90% / 60%
4536 1648 2634 110
(84)
B / C
95% / 12%
74%
190 2767 5472 102
(101)
B
88% / 37%
133 573 20 165
(134)
B / C
88% / 72%
52%
4451 3600 27 140
(135)
B / C
94% / 77%
1836 5518 3452 110
(116)
B
95% / 43%
61%
5980 5460 3049 97
(107)
B
95% / 41%
141 4405 1114 117
(106)
B
80% / 20%
77%
1305 503 78 146
(128)
B
95% / 75%
2481 5830 230 152
(130)
B / C
85% / 56%
95%
2212 5920 5333 96
(73)
B
95% / 5%
228 2648 1262 120
(112)
B
95% / 40%
86%
834 3735 384 105
(86)
B
87% / 8%
1058 359 120 135
(136)
B
93% / 67%
80%
1086 1775 3490 107
(107)
B
95% / 38%
4253 5870 1902 75
(70)
B
60% / 5%
95%
1746 1529 3536 82
(112)
B
95% / 73%
1723 5822 4607 88
(77)
B
83% / 5%
94%
5816 842 85 102
(127)
B
95% / 32%
6086 2634 27 139
(120)
B / C
95% / 52%
60%
1305 1648 2846 130
(115)
B
95% / 57%
3049 3419 503 80
(109)
B
95% / 13%
80%
5830 20 1729 113
(86)
B
70% / 16%
2648 1836 5980 107
(109)
B
93% / 24%
57%
3562 230 57 121
(104)
B
95% / 39%
330 5460 4405 142
(132)
B / C
83% / 61%
84%
4536 1775 295 90
(101)
B / C
95% / 46%
228 2212 4301 87
(85)
B
82% / 8%
65%
2370 1902 1058 97
(94)
B
75% / 20%
3490 5472 1723 104
(88)
B / C
87% / 6%
86%
3735 5333 5870 69
(64)
B
87% / 5%
78 3600 3357 129
(133)
B / C
91% / 73%
95%
5816 5920 1529 87
(81)
B
95% / 5%
1086 4253 4451 130
(106)
B
95% / 36%
55%
2767 263 1481 143
(109)
B / C
95% / 30%
5924 5822 1746 112
(95)
B / C
95% / 37%
53%
190 1262 141 96
(94)
B
95% / 12%
120 3452 360 150
(136)
B
86% / 67%
65%
3478 133 1114 180
(152)
B / C
95% / 63%
384 1665 910 119
(100)
B / C
95% / 16%
86%
573 3536 2481 131
(128)
B
86% / 73%
5891 5518 359 109
(102)
B
86% / 49%
54%
834 5326 5048 94
(100)
B
95% / 16%
3419 5816 1305 124
(116)
B / C
95% / 29%
63%
5460 2846 228 125
(125)
B / C
95% / 57%
1529 6086 78 91
(110)
B
95% / 78%
95%
27 230 5472 164
(147)
B / C
95% / 83%
2370 1086 5980 110
(97)
B
78% / 45%
73%
3357 4405 2648 105
(113)
B
83% / 25%
1902 842 141 140
(106)
B / C
84% / 5%
73%
3600 3049 1836 72
(92)
B
89% / 5%
5924 20 2212 118
(113)
B / C
95% / 43%
85%
1775 5333 1665 97
(89)
B
95% / 12%
4301 3735 120 93
(84)
B
55% / 5%
70%
57 1746 1481 132
(103)
B / C
95% / 62%
1262 85 4536 136
(109)
B / C
95% / 38%
74%
5326 910 5870 110
(91)
B
92% / 5%
2634 3562 834 80
(82)
B
87% / 5%
92%
1723 2481 4253 119
(116)
B
92% / 35%
1729 384 1114 89
(110)
B
77% / 45%
59%
5920 330 3490 113
(116)
B
95% / 49%
5518 3536 133 144
(136)
B / C
85% / 51%
95%
190 263 5822 96
(81)
B
95% / 5%
295 573 3478 102
(106)
B
88% / 40%
74%
5048 2767 1058 167
(125)
B / C
95% / 38%
503 4607 5830 105
(83)
B
77% / 5%
69%
1648 3452 5891 101
(100)
B
95% / 43%
4451 360 5333 110
(117)
B
95% / 35%
60%
359 5816 78 108
(110)
--
95% / 15%
5870 27 834 123
(115)
B / C
94% / 30%
77%
910 3049 5924 116
(96)
B
95% / 5%
1114 85 1746 116
(140)
B
95% / 78%
88%
1836 3419 4405 89
(103)
B
86% / 5%
5980 3490 263 92
(94)
B
95% / 10%
95%
20 1305 228 147
(133)
B / C
95% / 88%
5460 842 190 140
(130)
B / C
95% / 58%
80%
5048 57 5920 114
(98)
B / C
95% / 33%
2846 1529 3452 99
(102)
B
95% / 37%
54%
1723 1058 1729 112
(100)
B / C
83% / 19%
1665 3735 4536 55
(88)
--
95% / 12%
95%
230 4253 359 180
(136)
B / C
95% / 91%
2370 2481 2767 122
(135)
B
74% / 79%
81%
4607 120 3600 50
(105)
--
86% / 12%
4301 3562 1775 93
(70)
B / C
63% / 5%
91%
5891 3536 141 96
(96)
B
85% / 14%
5822 384 133 121
(126)
B / C
95% / 61%
76%
3357 2212 5472 66
(110)
--
95% / 51%
4451 3478 5830 117
(107)
B
89% / 16%
53%
6086 5518 1262 121
(109)
B / C
95% / 52%
330 5326 1902 122
(109)
B
85% / 21%
53%
1648 573 1086 109
(111)
B
95% / 58%
295 2648 1481 115
(109)
B / C
95% / 40%
69%
503 2634 360 127
(123)
B
95% / 48%
57 3490 834 111
(97)
B / C
92% / 28%
55%
1665 3419 3600 77
(101)
--
88% / 7%
3049 3536 20 108
(100)
B
95% / 23%
66%
5920 228 4607 99
(90)
B
95% / 12%
141 5048 5924 117
(113)
B / C
95% / 49%
60%
5980 120 2846 138
(106)
B / C
87% / 26%
2481 263 27 150
(145)
B
95% / 73%
72%
3452 3478 359 149
(130)
B / C
95% / 65%
5326 573 3357 125
(112)
B / C
91% / 51%
79%
1114 3562 5333 123
(87)
B / C
95% / 5%
1529 2634 2370 95
(84)
B / C
83% / 37%
95%
1775 384 842 145
(125)
B / C
95% / 75%
503 5472 1262 132
(106)
B / C
95% / 41%
90%
4301 5518 5816 91
(74)
B
71% / 5%
85 1058 1648 97
(128)
--
95% / 64%
52%
5460 4253 78 134
(126)
B / C
95% / 56%
5891 1746 1902 75
(85)
B
90% / 14%
91%
133 4536 1723 120
(126)
B / C
92% / 50%
1836 3735 910 117
(105)
B
93% / 7%
65%
1086 5830 295 104
(93)
B
90% / 5%
4405 1729 360 103
(93)
B
68% / 14%
55%
2767 5870 2212 102
(96)
B / C
88% / 9%
5822 230 2648 137
(132)
B
95% / 88%
79%
4451 1305 330 157
(153)
B / C
95% / 95%
6086 1481 1665 109
(99)
B / C
95% / 49%
72%
190 3357 3452 117
(114)
B / C
95% / 43%
2846 3536 263 98
(107)
B
95% / 5%
91%
2370 5333 834 108
(86)
B / C
91% / 14%
5816 1746 3049 110
(76)
B / C
95% / 7%
83%
573 57 2634 119
(102)
B / C
95% / 20%
27 4253 5326 115
(123)
B
95% / 43%
54%
503 1836 120 117
(120)
B
81% / 35%
3478 4536 1529 148
(94)
B / C
85% / 40%
76%
3735 2212 3562 83
(70)
B
81% / 5%
1729 5460 1262 122
(119)
B
94% / 53%
58%
4607 1086 230 157
(125)
B / C
86% / 47%
3419 295 2481 129
(124)
B / C
90% / 56%
71%
5980 5870 842 127
(107)
B / C
90% / 9%
4405 359 1481 91
(113)
--
95% / 52%
62%
5822 20 1648 96
(106)
B
94% / 58%
5472 1114 5048 139
(119)
B
94% / 54%
80%
1902 5830 1775 98
(91)
--
85% / 7%
1723 3600 1305 115
(112)
B / C
76% / 39%
72%
4301 360 384 105
(97)
B
77% / 27%
5518 228 2767 132
(125)
B
95% / 67%
67%
5924 330 78 141
(136)
B / C
95% / 87%
4451 85 2648 135
(125)
B / C
95% / 60%
95%
3490 5891 190 98
(76)
B
86% / 5%
133 1058 5920 139
(142)
B
95% / 70%
84%
6086 141 910 104
(118)
B
95% / 55%

Ranking Predictions (?)

Remember, ranking predictions are JUST FOR FUN! Please do not be discouraged by our predictions -- they are almost certainly wrong.

Predictions will update throughout the event.

Predicted rankings as of qualification match #125

Predicted Rank Team Average Rank Highest Rank Median Rank Lowest Rank Average RP Highest RP Lowest RP
1 133 1.0 1 1 1 34.0 34 34
2 330 2.0 2 2 2 34.0 34 34
3 230 3.0 3 3 3 33.0 33 33
4 27 4.0 4 4 4 32.0 32 32
5 842 5.0 5 5 5 31.0 31 31
6 5460 6.0 6 6 6 31.0 31 31
7 1305 7.0 7 7 7 31.0 31 31
8 2481 8.0 8 8 8 30.0 30 30
9 3357 9.0 9 9 9 30.0 30 30
10 57 10.0 10 10 10 30.0 30 30
11 503 11.0 11 11 11 30.0 30 30
12 1262 12.0 12 12 12 29.0 29 29
13 2767 13.0 13 13 13 28.0 28 28
14 834 14.0 14 14 14 28.0 28 28
15 573 15.0 15 15 15 28.0 28 28
16 20 16.0 16 16 16 28.0 28 28
17 4451 17.0 17 17 17 28.0 28 28
18 78 18.0 18 18 18 27.0 27 27
19 360 19.0 19 19 19 27.0 27 27
20 3536 20.0 20 20 20 27.0 27 27
21 85 21.0 21 21 21 27.0 27 27
22 4536 22.0 22 22 22 27.0 27 27
23 295 23.0 23 23 23 26.0 26 26
24 1746 24.0 24 24 24 26.0 26 26
25 1723 25.0 25 25 25 26.0 26 26
26 1836 26.0 26 26 26 26.0 26 26
27 1114 27.0 27 27 27 25.0 25 25
28 5472 28.0 28 28 28 25.0 25 25
29 5326 29.0 29 29 29 25.0 25 25
30 2634 30.0 30 30 30 25.0 25 25
31 2648 31.0 31 31 31 24.0 24 24
32 5518 32.0 32 32 32 24.0 24 24
33 5822 33.0 33 33 33 24.0 24 24
34 228 34.0 34 34 34 24.0 24 24
35 4253 35.0 35 35 35 23.0 23 23
36 5891 36.0 36 36 36 23.0 23 23
37 5924 37.0 37 37 37 23.0 23 23
38 3478 38.0 38 38 38 23.0 23 23
39 2846 39.0 39 39 39 23.0 23 23
40 2370 40.0 40 40 40 23.0 23 23
41 6086 41.0 41 41 41 23.0 23 23
42 359 42.0 42 42 42 22.0 22 22
43 3452 43.0 43 43 43 22.0 22 22
44 1529 44.0 44 44 44 22.0 22 22
45 910 45.0 45 45 45 21.0 21 21
46 3419 46.0 46 46 46 21.0 21 21
47 263 47.0 47 47 47 21.0 21 21
48 1481 48.0 48 48 48 21.0 21 21
49 1086 49.0 49 49 49 21.0 21 21
50 384 50.0 50 50 50 21.0 21 21
51 1058 51.0 51 51 51 21.0 21 21
52 5980 52.0 52 52 52 21.0 21 21
53 3490 53.0 53 53 53 20.0 20 20
54 141 54.0 54 54 54 20.0 20 20
55 5048 55.0 55 55 55 20.0 20 20
56 4607 56.0 56 56 56 20.0 20 20
57 3600 57.0 57 57 57 20.0 20 20
58 1775 58.0 58 58 58 19.0 19 19
59 1902 59.0 59 59 59 19.0 19 19
60 4405 60.0 60 60 60 19.0 19 19
61 1648 61.0 61 61 61 19.0 19 19
62 120 62.0 62 62 62 19.0 19 19
63 5920 63.0 63 63 63 19.0 19 19
64 2212 64.0 64 64 64 18.0 18 18
65 190 65.0 65 65 65 17.0 17 17
66 5816 66.0 66 66 66 17.0 17 17
67 5333 67.0 67 67 67 17.0 17 17
68 5830 68.0 68 68 68 16.0 16 16
69 1729 69.0 69 69 69 16.0 16 16
70 5870 70.0 70 70 70 14.0 14 14
71 3562 71.0 71 71 71 14.0 14 14
72 1665 72.0 72 72 72 14.0 14 14
73 3049 73.0 73 73 73 13.0 13 13
74 3735 74.0 74 74 74 12.0 12 12
75 4301 75.0 75 75 75 10.0 10 10

Playoff Match Predictions (?)

Remember, match predictions are JUST FOR FUN! Please do not be discouraged by our predictions -- they are almost certainly wrong.

Win/Loss prediction accuracy: 47%

Win/Loss prediction accuracy (>75% confidence): 57%

Match score prediction average error: 30.5

Match Red Alliance Scores:
Actual
(Predicted)
Breach / Capture:
Actual
(Predicted Probability)
Actual Score vs. Predicted Distribution Win/Loss
Prediction
Probability
Win/Loss
Prediction
Correct
Quarterfinals
230 133 910 190
(224)
B
95% / 95%
95%
359 503 4607 143
(135)
B
78% / 24%
230 910 1775 135
(202)
B
95% / 95%
86%
503 359 228 140
(170)
B
95% / 80%
230 133 910 200
(216)
B / C
95% / 94%
95%
503 359 4607 147
(134)
B
78% / 16%
4451 842 2767 207
(191)
B / C
93% / 75%
59%
5460 85 3357 217
(182)
B / C
95% / 83%
4451 842 2767 180
(193)
B
93% / 81%
54%
5460 85 3357 230
(189)
B / C
95% / 88%
120 2481 330 255
(189)
B / C
74% / 84%
74%
3478 360 57 191
(163)
B / C
95% / 58%
120 2481 330 275
(201)
B / C
76% / 84%
81%
3478 360 57 155
(168)
B
95% / 64%
1114 27 20 150
(201)
B
95% / 89%
86%
1305 3419 2648 200
(166)
B / C
85% / 68%
1114 27 5924 124
(185)
B
95% / 74%
64%
1305 3419 2648 135
(173)
B
88% / 77%
Semifinals
230 1775 910 191
(189)
B / C
95% / 88%
57%
5460 85 3357 87
(197)
--
95% / 91%
230 133 910 205
(212)
B / C
95% / 89%
78%
5460 85 3357 155
(183)
B
95% / 79%
120 2481 330 0
(214)
B / C
77% / 88%
92%
1305 3419 2648 165
(170)
B
89% / 75%
120 2481 330 240
(182)
B / C
78% / 90%
64%
1305 3419 2648 180
(172)
B / C
90% / 74%
120 2481 330 230
(189)
B / C
79% / 91%
69%
1305 3419 2648 127
(173)
B
90% / 76%
Finals
230 133 910 170
(211)
B
95% / 92%
69%
120 2481 330 190
(194)
B
79% / 93%
230 133 910 230
(209)
B / C
95% / 93%
65%
120 2481 330 225
(196)
B / C
80% / 94%
230 133 910 212
(211)
B / C
95% / 94%
65%
120 2481 330 227
(198)
B / C
80% / 94%