Advanced Insights: 2016 Silicon Valley Regional presented by Google.org

Qualification Match Predictions (?)

Remember, match predictions are JUST FOR FUN! Please do not be discouraged by our predictions -- they are almost certainly wrong.

Win/Loss prediction accuracy: 69%

Win/Loss prediction accuracy (>75% confidence): 94%

Match score prediction average error: 13.9

Match	Red Alliance			Scores: Actual (Predicted)	Breach / Capture: Actual (Predicted Probability)	Actual Score vs. Predicted Distribution	Win/Loss Prediction Probability	Win/Loss Prediction Correct
Match	Blue Alliance			Scores: Actual (Predicted)	Breach / Capture: Actual (Predicted Probability)	Actual Score vs. Predicted Distribution	Win/Loss Prediction Probability	Win/Loss Prediction Correct
Qualifications
Quals 1	2489	5677	1700	63 (64)	B 33% / 5%		59%
Quals 1	4171	256	1868	65 (69)	-- 75% / 5%		59%
Quals 2	254	852	4990	80 (88)	B 73% / 12%		79%
Quals 2	2035	2643	6036	63 (64)	B 66% / 5%		79%
Quals 3	5027	846	841	74 (68)	B 83% / 5%		62%
Quals 3	114	6039	5026	82 (61)	B 80% / 5%		62%
Quals 4	2473	5940	1678	76 (105)	B 79% / 38%		92%
Quals 4	5171	581	100	56 (67)	B 50% / 5%		92%
Quals 5	3303	1351	5089	68 (73)	B 92% / 5%		71%
Quals 5	5700	1967	1280	74 (59)	B 53% / 5%		71%
Quals 6	3482	6059	5655	75 (80)	B 94% / 7%		67%
Quals 6	670	253	199	60 (69)	-- 71% / 5%		67%
Quals 7	8	5924	4643	88 (63)	B 62% / 5%		64%
Quals 7	192	2854	5905	67 (74)	B 73% / 5%		64%
Quals 8	668	4765	4186	73 (61)	B 51% / 5%		58%
Quals 8	5728	5104	2813	38 (57)	-- 44% / 5%		58%
Quals 9	368	4904	2367	84 (88)	B 58% / 33%		85%
Quals 9	2135	972	1662	60 (66)	B 80% / 5%		85%
Quals 10	5737	604	766	57 (57)	-- 41% / 5%		53%
Quals 10	4159	649	4255	66 (55)	B 38% / 5%		53%
Quals 11	971	115	1868	111 (106)	B 84% / 44%		94%
Quals 11	751	3256	5700	62 (63)	-- 67% / 5%		94%
Quals 12	852	6039	5924	72 (82)	-- 94% / 5%		79%
Quals 12	5089	5655	581	41 (64)	-- 51% / 5%		79%
Quals 13	2473	6036	3303	85 (68)	-- 80% / 5%		67%
Quals 13	4186	5905	841	49 (59)	B 74% / 5%		67%
Quals 14	846	100	2854	67 (72)	B 92% / 5%		77%
Quals 14	6059	1967	972	35 (58)	-- 74% / 5%		77%
Quals 15	5728	2643	649	47 (60)	-- 84% / 5%		86%
Quals 15	1678	2813	8	104 (86)	B / C 64% / 21%		86%
Quals 16	1662	1700	5104	76 (64)	B 72% / 5%		95%
Quals 16	971	4255	254	147 (129)	B / C 76% / 76%		95%
Quals 17	4643	766	256	37 (54)	-- 23% / 5%		56%
Quals 17	5026	253	668	34 (58)	-- 58% / 5%		56%
Quals 18	192	2367	199	81 (68)	B 60% / 5%		65%
Quals 18	604	5940	3256	88 (58)	B 78% / 5%		65%
Quals 19	115	5027	4171	59 (61)	-- 50% / 5%		94%
Quals 19	3482	4904	4765	57 (95)	-- 95% / 19%		94%
Quals 20	5171	114	1280	41 (79)	-- 94% / 5%		95%
Quals 20	4990	2489	751	54 (40)	-- 31% / 5%		95%
Quals 21	2035	368	670	96 (85)	B 87% / 15%		79%
Quals 21	5677	5737	1351	66 (70)	B 94% / 5%		79%
Quals 22	4159	2643	6039	54 (56)	B 51% / 5%		80%
Quals 22	2135	5924	4186	82 (74)	B 93% / 5%		80%
Quals 23	5089	100	649	101 (70)	B 91% / 5%		92%
Quals 23	254	199	1700	132 (104)	B / C 84% / 36%		92%
Quals 24	5905	6059	6036	86 (67)	B 52% / 5%		95%
Quals 24	4904	971	1678	170 (147)	B / C 95% / 92%		95%
Quals 25	1868	114	3482	101 (82)	B 95% / 5%		62%
Quals 25	192	4255	3303	101 (73)	B 62% / 5%		62%
Quals 26	1662	5027	766	66 (62)	B 64% / 5%		51%
Quals 26	2035	2854	5171	67 (62)	B 76% / 5%		51%
Quals 27	2367	5655	2813	31 (50)	-- 58% / 5%		87%
Quals 27	5700	5737	256	74 (69)	B 70% / 5%		87%
Quals 28	4171	846	4990	60 (58)	-- 46% / 5%		79%
Quals 28	368	2473	4159	117 (73)	B / C 63% / 5%		79%
Quals 29	1967	2135	3256	61 (63)	-- 55% / 5%		51%
Quals 29	5677	668	852	68 (62)	-- 67% / 5%		51%
Quals 30	5026	751	4765	67 (46)	B 44% / 5%		75%
Quals 30	604	8	2489	74 (65)	B 69% / 5%		75%
Quals 31	581	972	1351	57 (44)	B 48% / 5%		60%
Quals 31	5104	841	253	50 (49)	-- 43% / 5%		60%
Quals 32	670	115	1280	64 (56)	B 48% / 5%		53%
Quals 32	4643	5728	5940	48 (53)	-- 33% / 5%		53%
Quals 33	846	4904	4255	87 (77)	B 57% / 13%		73%
Quals 33	2035	5655	4186	62 (65)	B 77% / 5%		73%
Quals 34	5089	1700	6039	66 (78)	B 82% / 5%		95%
Quals 34	2367	4990	668	42 (48)	-- 39% / 5%		95%
Quals 35	8	256	971	107 (114)	-- 80% / 44%		87%
Quals 35	3303	100	4159	65 (81)	B 74% / 6%		87%
Quals 36	114	5700	5104	76 (74)	B 90% / 5%		71%
Quals 36	5924	766	368	122 (91)	B / C 79% / 23%		71%
Quals 37	972	1678	1280	125 (90)	B / C 60% / 47%		74%
Quals 37	115	604	5677	83 (71)	B 82% / 5%		74%
Quals 38	5026	4171	192	85 (64)	B 63% / 5%		68%
Quals 38	1351	6036	649	78 (77)	B 95% / 5%		68%
Quals 39	5027	751	253	78 (59)	B 33% / 5%		65%
Quals 39	2643	5905	670	60 (52)	B 64% / 5%		65%
Quals 40	5728	841	2473	41 (56)	-- 49% / 5%		50%
Quals 40	2489	2854	3256	100 (56)	B 49% / 5%		50%
Quals 41	5737	4643	199	45 (64)	-- 58% / 5%		59%
Quals 41	4765	581	2135	64 (58)	-- 63% / 5%		59%
Quals 42	5940	852	1868	93 (65)	B 94% / 5%		61%
Quals 42	1662	6059	2813	67 (59)	B 60% / 5%		61%
Quals 43	5171	3482	5026	50 (60)	B 75% / 5%		81%
Quals 43	1967	254	4186	149 (90)	B / C 63% / 36%		81%
Quals 44	5677	4255	100	68 (71)	B 74% / 5%		68%
Quals 44	2367	253	6036	75 (61)	B 44% / 5%		68%
Quals 45	5089	670	4159	69 (68)	B 67% / 5%		62%
Quals 45	115	2489	192	95 (78)	B 79% / 5%		62%
Quals 46	3256	5924	3303	103 (95)	B 92% / 19%		71%
Quals 46	4765	1700	846	77 (77)	B 82% / 5%		71%
Quals 47	5737	972	852	80 (57)	B 59% / 5%		95%
Quals 47	971	5728	5027	109 (104)	B 68% / 56%		95%
Quals 48	5104	4990	2135	76 (47)	B 24% / 5%		84%
Quals 48	256	5940	3482	84 (71)	B 81% / 14%		84%
Quals 49	199	4904	2854	50 (78)	-- 68% / 9%		73%
Quals 49	1351	2813	114	92 (60)	B 80% / 5%		73%
Quals 50	2643	766	254	115 (91)	B / C 53% / 33%		90%
Quals 50	581	841	1868	73 (59)	B 95% / 5%		90%
Quals 51	604	6059	649	80 (76)	B 79% / 5%		56%
Quals 51	5171	668	368	82 (80)	-- 56% / 13%		56%
Quals 52	2473	1967	5655	46 (55)	-- 24% / 5%		95%
Quals 52	1678	751	1662	125 (106)	B 95% / 28%		95%
Quals 53	4171	2035	5700	70 (69)	B 87% / 5%		80%
Quals 53	4643	5905	6039	69 (54)	B 52% / 5%		80%
Quals 54	1280	2367	4186	79 (60)	B 72% / 5%		67%
Quals 54	8	5027	670	70 (72)	B 85% / 5%		67%
Quals 55	3482	1351	2489	60 (76)	B 94% / 6%		61%
Quals 55	852	846	766	58 (68)	-- 66% / 5%		61%
Quals 56	604	5924	253	50 (85)	-- 85% / 5%		64%
Quals 56	4904	1868	5728	54 (76)	-- 86% / 10%		64%
Quals 57	368	2813	2135	89 (87)	B 65% / 24%		65%
Quals 57	6036	1700	751	92 (77)	B 81% / 8%		65%
Quals 58	6039	192	972	99 (83)	B 84% / 5%		76%
Quals 58	199	256	2473	41 (62)	-- 42% / 5%		76%
Quals 59	2035	3256	5737	51 (79)	-- 85% / 5%		63%
Quals 59	1280	5104	100	87 (69)	B 72% / 5%		63%
Quals 60	5905	1967	114	67 (71)	B 64% / 5%		59%
Quals 60	4765	649	5940	97 (77)	B / C 88% / 9%		59%
Quals 61	2854	668	4159	55 (59)	-- 60% / 5%		95%
Quals 61	5700	1678	254	162 (156)	B / C 95% / 93%		95%
Quals 62	8	841	5171	86 (53)	B 72% / 5%		51%
Quals 62	115	4255	5655	37 (53)	-- 51% / 5%		51%
Quals 63	5677	3303	581	71 (74)	B 86% / 5%		90%
Quals 63	4990	6059	5026	62 (47)	B 52% / 5%		90%
Quals 64	2643	971	1662	116 (104)	B / C 95% / 39%		95%
Quals 64	4643	5089	4171	73 (56)	B 25% / 5%		95%
Quals 65	1967	4904	766	94 (61)	B 32% / 5%		67%
Quals 65	3256	6039	670	82 (75)	B 80% / 5%		67%
Quals 66	192	5700	5728	89 (77)	B 89% / 5%		56%
Quals 66	100	2135	5027	72 (74)	B 95% / 5%		56%
Quals 67	4765	4159	6036	57 (76)	-- 72% / 5%		61%
Quals 67	5171	1351	1868	75 (68)	B 95% / 8%		61%
Quals 68	5026	4255	5905	83 (49)	B 63% / 5%		91%
Quals 68	368	852	1280	115 (93)	B / C 87% / 32%		91%
Quals 69	668	5655	5940	65 (57)	-- 27% / 9%		61%
Quals 69	3303	2643	972	76 (64)	B 57% / 6%		61%
Quals 70	2854	4186	253	48 (63)	-- 59% / 5%		95%
Quals 70	649	971	4990	110 (110)	B / C 91% / 47%		95%
Quals 71	1678	841	5089	134 (106)	B / C 94% / 64%		86%
Quals 71	5737	1700	3482	68 (75)	-- 95% / 5%		86%
Quals 72	604	4643	2813	44 (51)	-- 28% / 5%		95%
Quals 72	254	5677	2473	131 (111)	B 90% / 61%		95%
Quals 73	6059	2035	115	57 (66)	-- 66% / 5%		60%
Quals 73	5924	2489	2367	77 (72)	B 80% / 5%		60%
Quals 74	5104	846	199	76 (69)	B 58% / 5%		55%
Quals 74	4171	8	751	65 (71)	-- 71% / 5%		55%
Quals 75	1662	581	6036	66 (72)	-- 95% / 5%		55%
Quals 75	256	114	3256	99 (75)	B 59% / 5%		55%
Quals 76	5700	1700	5171	69 (68)	B 87% / 5%		59%
Quals 76	4904	2643	5026	79 (61)	B 82% / 5%		59%
Quals 77	5655	5677	971	113 (107)	B / C 76% / 69%		80%
Quals 77	192	4765	766	59 (84)	-- 80% / 5%		80%
Quals 78	100	5905	2813	81 (63)	B 75% / 5%		69%
Quals 78	1351	4990	115	80 (52)	B 66% / 5%		69%
Quals 79	6039	254	2489	155 (116)	B / C 89% / 58%		95%
Quals 79	253	5940	5737	65 (63)	B 45% / 9%		95%
Quals 80	2473	2135	8	87 (66)	B 70% / 5%		70%
Quals 80	6059	114	5089	104 (82)	B / C 85% / 5%		70%
Quals 81	4171	5728	581	65 (45)	B 32% / 5%		65%
Quals 81	1967	4255	2367	89 (52)	B 44% / 5%		65%
Quals 82	5924	668	841	86 (72)	B 83% / 23%		52%
Quals 82	199	1662	1280	89 (71)	B 71% / 10%		52%
Quals 83	4643	1678	368	100 (127)	B 85% / 85%		95%
Quals 83	1868	5027	4186	56 (78)	-- 95% / 5%		95%
Quals 84	2035	751	649	74 (76)	B 94% / 5%		68%
Quals 84	4159	972	3482	63 (65)	-- 70% / 7%		68%
Quals 85	670	2854	3303	71 (70)	B 95% / 5%		61%
Quals 85	852	5104	604	72 (63)	B 78% / 5%		61%
Quals 86	256	254	4904	115 (124)	B 80% / 68%		91%
Quals 86	846	5089	5905	90 (82)	B 95% / 10%		91%

Ranking Predictions (?)

Remember, ranking predictions are JUST FOR FUN! Please do not be discouraged by our predictions -- they are almost certainly wrong.

Predictions will update throughout the event.

Predicted rankings as of qualification match #86

Predicted Rank	Team	Average Rank	Highest Rank	Median Rank	Lowest Rank	Average RP	Highest RP	Lowest RP
1	1678	1.0	1	1	1	29.0	29	29
2	254	2.0	2	2	2	29.0	29	29
3	971	3.0	3	3	3	28.0	28	28
4	368	4.0	4	4	4	24.0	24	24
5	1280	5.0	5	5	5	23.0	23	23
6	2489	6.0	6	6	6	22.0	22	22
7	5924	7.0	7	7	7	19.0	19	19
8	5700	8.0	8	8	8	18.0	18	18
9	6039	9.0	9	9	9	18.0	18	18
10	852	10.0	10	10	10	18.0	18	18
11	256	11.0	11	11	11	18.0	18	18
12	649	12.0	12	12	12	17.0	17	17
13	4904	13.0	13	13	13	17.0	17	17
14	4255	14.0	14	14	14	17.0	17	17
15	5940	15.0	15	15	15	17.0	17	17
16	114	16.0	16	16	16	17.0	17	17
17	8	17.0	17	17	17	17.0	17	17
18	2643	18.0	18	18	18	17.0	17	17
19	192	19.0	19	19	19	16.0	16	16
20	1868	20.0	20	20	20	16.0	16	16
21	3303	21.0	21	21	21	16.0	16	16
22	5677	22.0	22	22	22	16.0	16	16
23	1351	23.0	23	23	23	16.0	16	16
24	2367	24.0	24	24	24	16.0	16	16
25	972	25.0	25	25	25	15.0	15	15
26	5089	26.0	26	26	26	15.0	15	15
27	751	27.0	27	27	27	15.0	15	15
28	4186	28.0	28	28	28	15.0	15	15
29	1662	29.0	29	29	29	14.0	14	14
30	1700	30.0	30	30	30	14.0	14	14
31	1967	31.0	31	31	31	14.0	14	14
32	2035	32.0	32	32	32	14.0	14	14
33	100	33.0	33	33	33	14.0	14	14
34	5171	34.0	34	34	34	14.0	14	14
35	766	35.0	35	35	35	14.0	14	14
36	115	36.0	36	36	36	13.0	13	13
37	3256	37.0	37	37	37	13.0	13	13
38	5026	38.0	38	38	38	13.0	13	13
39	2473	39.0	39	39	39	13.0	13	13
40	5027	40.0	40	40	40	12.0	12	12
41	4171	41.0	41	41	41	12.0	12	12
42	5104	42.0	42	42	42	12.0	12	12
43	2813	43.0	43	43	43	12.0	12	12
44	3482	44.0	44	44	44	12.0	12	12
45	846	45.0	45	45	45	12.0	12	12
46	4990	46.0	46	46	46	12.0	12	12
47	670	47.0	47	47	47	11.0	11	11
48	6059	48.0	48	48	48	11.0	11	11
49	604	49.0	49	49	49	11.0	11	11
50	199	50.0	50	50	50	11.0	11	11
51	2854	51.0	51	51	51	11.0	11	11
52	4765	52.0	52	52	52	11.0	11	11
53	6036	53.0	53	53	53	11.0	11	11
54	581	54.0	54	54	54	11.0	11	11
55	841	55.0	55	55	55	11.0	11	11
56	2135	56.0	56	56	56	10.0	10	10
57	5905	57.0	57	57	57	10.0	10	10
58	4643	58.0	58	58	58	10.0	10	10
59	4159	59.0	59	59	59	10.0	10	10
60	5728	60.0	60	60	60	9.0	9	9
61	668	61.0	61	61	61	8.0	8	8
62	5655	62.0	62	62	62	8.0	8	8
63	253	63.0	63	63	63	7.0	7	7
64	5737	64.0	64	64	64	6.0	6	6

Playoff Match Predictions (?)

Remember, match predictions are JUST FOR FUN! Please do not be discouraged by our predictions -- they are almost certainly wrong.

Win/Loss prediction accuracy: 79%

Win/Loss prediction accuracy (>75% confidence): 100%

Match score prediction average error: 18.5

Match	Red Alliance			Scores: Actual (Predicted)	Breach / Capture: Actual (Predicted Probability)	Actual Score vs. Predicted Distribution	Win/Loss Prediction Probability	Win/Loss Prediction Correct
Match	Blue Alliance			Scores: Actual (Predicted)	Breach / Capture: Actual (Predicted Probability)	Actual Score vs. Predicted Distribution	Win/Loss Prediction Probability	Win/Loss Prediction Correct
Quarterfinals
Quarters 1 Match 1	254	1678	1662	212 (205)	B / C 95% / 91%		95%
Quarters 1 Match 1	1868	852	6036	88 (99)	B 88% / 12%		95%
Quarters 1 Match 2	254	1678	1662	205 (207)	B / C 95% / 95%		95%
Quarters 1 Match 2	1868	852	6036	90 (97)	B 90% / 9%		95%
Quarters 2 Match 1	192	2489	5940	88 (121)	B 92% / 45%		54%
Quarters 2 Match 1	649	5924	3482	139 (118)	B / C 95% / 19%		54%
Quarters 2 Match 2	192	2489	5940	100 (115)	B 95% / 36%		58%
Quarters 2 Match 2	649	5924	3482	154 (122)	B / C 95% / 30%		58%
Quarters 3 Match 1	368	971	3303	124 (186)	B 95% / 89%		95%
Quarters 3 Match 1	8	6039	846	57 (105)	-- 95% / 5%		95%
Quarters 3 Match 2	368	971	3303	172 (170)	B / C 95% / 67%		95%
Quarters 3 Match 2	8	6039	846	51 (92)	-- 68% / 5%		95%
Quarters 4 Match 1	114	1280	5905	108 (108)	B 95% / 10%		56%
Quarters 4 Match 1	3256	5700	4904	121 (102)	B 84% / 5%		56%
Quarters 4 Match 2	114	1280	5905	106 (109)	B 95% / 11%		52%
Quarters 4 Match 2	3256	5700	4904	177 (108)	B / C 90% / 6%		52%
Semifinals
Semis 1 Match 1	254	1678	1662	195 (207)	B / C 95% / 95%		95%
Semis 1 Match 1	649	5924	3482	114 (127)	B 95% / 39%		95%
Semis 1 Match 2	254	1678	1662	190 (205)	B / C 95% / 95%		95%
Semis 1 Match 2	649	5924	3482	115 (126)	B 95% / 38%		95%
Semis 2 Match 1	368	971	3303	158 (169)	B / C 95% / 70%		91%
Semis 2 Match 1	3256	5700	4904	120 (119)	B 93% / 15%		91%
Semis 2 Match 2	368	971	3303	137 (166)	B 95% / 70%		90%
Semis 2 Match 2	3256	5700	4904	100 (119)	B 95% / 12%		90%
Finals
Finals 1	254	1678	1662	160 (203)	B 95% / 95%		88%
Finals 1	368	971	3303	159 (164)	B / C 95% / 68%		88%
Finals 2	254	1678	1662	202 (200)	B / C 95% / 95%		87%
Finals 2	368	971	3303	142 (162)	B 95% / 67%		87%

Silicon Valley Regional presented by Google.org 2016