How Do Predictions Work?

The Blue Alliances utilizes statistical analysis to try to predict event results.

Predictions are just for fun! Don't like our predictions? Go out there and prove us wrong!

Match Predictions

Match result predictions attempts to estimate the mean and variance of a team's contribution to the alliance final score. Means are estimated by solving for the minimum mean squared error (MMSE) solution to the standard OPR equations. Final match score is predicted by summing each team's mean contribution. The actual score is then compared to the predicted score to calculate a team's variance which is used to inform future predictions.

Event Ranking Predictions

Rankings are predicted using the Monte Carlo method, where matches are simulated many times and the rankings are computed for each simulation. Due to the discrete nature of the method, some scenarios may never be simulated even though they may be possible.